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Lightweight

3 Rounds

6 days away

Elo1521

Elo1489

Renato MoicanovsBrian OrtegaUFC Prediction

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Saturday, September 19, 2026Los Angeles, USA

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Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renato Moicano has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Renato Moicano

Red Corner

Brian Ortega

Blue Corner

-202

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1521

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renato Moicano

oldest →

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Brian OrtegaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22

SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renato MoicanoMetricBrian Ortega

4.10

Strikes / min

3.84

3.55

Strikes absorbed / min

6.38

59%

Strike defense

49%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

0.93

64%

Takedown defense

54%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.55Δ 3.09 — meaningful gap-2.54

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renato Moicano(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO51%

Historical win share: Brian Ortega earned 38% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission49%

Historical win share: Renato Moicano earned 54% of wins by submission.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13