Welterweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, August 20, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRick Story: WrestlervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(62.3%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rick Story enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rick Story
Red Corner
VS
Donald Cerrone
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
41
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'1"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rick StoryW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Brian Ebersole · Nov 13L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14W
SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rick StoryMetricDonald Cerrone
3.80
Strikes / min
4.41
2.17
Strikes absorbed / min
4.48
62%
Strike defense
53%
2.53
TDs / 15 min
1.16
63%
Takedown defense
73%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.63Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rick StoryDonald Cerrone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rick Story(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-108.5108.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+20.0-20.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Rick Story
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights16
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37