Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rick Story won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Wednesday, July 16, 2014·Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupRick Story: WrestlervsLeonardo Mafra: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(67.8%)
Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rick Story has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rick Story
Red Corner
VS
Leonardo Mafra
Blue Corner
-300
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+270
(27%)
41
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rick Story
oldest →latest
W
vs Brian Ebersole · Nov 13L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16Leonardo Mafra
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Thiago Perpetuo · Jun 12W
vs Cain Carrizosa · Mar 15L
KOvs Stevie Ray · Jul 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rick StoryMetricLeonardo Mafra
3.80
Strikes / min
4.55
2.17
Strikes absorbed / min
4.38
62%
Strike defense
43%
2.53
TDs / 15 min
2.12
63%
Takedown defense
69%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.63Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap+0.17
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rick StoryLeonardo Mafra
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rick Story(10 fights)Leonardo Mafra(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+44.8-44.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-630.0630.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.5-2.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
Rick Story
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights16
Leonardo Mafra
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4