Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Mario Bautista won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 13, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRicky Simon: WrestlervsMario Bautista: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Ricky Simon wins(59.7%)
Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ricky Simon has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Ricky Simon
Red Corner
VS
Mario Bautista
Blue Corner
-180
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
33
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'6"
Height
5'9"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ricky Simon
oldest →latest
L
vs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 24W
KOvs Javid Basharat · Feb 25W
vs Cameron Smotherman · Jun 25L
vs Raoni Barcelos · Nov 25D
vs Adrian Yanez · Mar 26Mario Bautista
oldest →latest
W
vs Da'Mon Blackshear · Aug 23W
vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24W
vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ricky SimonMetricMario Bautista
3.03
Strikes / min
5.30
3.90
Strikes absorbed / min
3.98
61%
Strike defense
54%
4.49
TDs / 15 min
1.91
76%
Takedown defense
55%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.87Δ 2.19 — meaningful gap+1.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ricky SimonMario Bautista
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ricky Simon(10 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+4.4-4.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+112.0-112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Ricky Simon
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights17
Mario Bautista
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14