Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Rinya Nakamura won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 17, 2024·Anaheim, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rinya Nakamura wins(75.5%)
Actual result: Rinya Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rinya Nakamura has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rinya Nakamura has 75pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rinya Nakamura (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rinya Nakamura
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Vera
Blue Corner
-1450
(94%)
Vegas Odds
+850
(11%)
31
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rinya Nakamura
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Feb 23W
vs Fernie Garcia · Aug 23L
vs Muin Gafurov · Jan 25W
KOvs Nathan Fletcher · Aug 25Carlos Vera
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Josias Musasa · Mar 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rinya NakamuraMetricCarlos Vera
3.27
Strikes / min
1.53
1.72
Strikes absorbed / min
2.79
63%
Strike defense
49%
2.58
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
25%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.55Δ 2.81 — meaningful gap-1.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rinya NakamuraCarlos Vera
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rinya Nakamura(5 fights)Carlos Vera(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+29.8-29.8
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.049.0
Rinya Nakamura
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5
Carlos Vera
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2