Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Rinya Nakamura won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 26, 2023·Kallang, Singapore, Singapore
Model Prediction: Rinya Nakamura wins(81.3%)
Actual result: Rinya Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Fernie Garcia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rinya Nakamura has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rinya Nakamura has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rinya Nakamura (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rinya Nakamura
Red Corner
VS
Fernie Garcia
Blue Corner
-950
(90%)
Vegas Odds
+625
(14%)
31
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rinya Nakamura
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Feb 23W
vs Carlos Vera · Feb 24L
vs Muin Gafurov · Jan 25W
KOvs Nathan Fletcher · Aug 25Fernie GarciaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Journey Newson · May 22L
vs Brady Hiestand · Nov 22L
KOvs Hyder Amil · Feb 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rinya NakamuraMetricFernie Garcia
3.27
Strikes / min
2.04
1.72
Strikes absorbed / min
3.79
63%
Strike defense
48%
2.58
TDs / 15 min
0.28
100%
Takedown defense
50%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.55Δ 3.30 — meaningful gap-1.75
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rinya NakamuraFernie Garcia
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rinya Nakamura(5 fights)Fernie Garcia(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+48.6-48.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-77.077.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+2.0-2.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
Rinya Nakamura
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5
Fernie Garcia
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights4