Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Muin Gafurov won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 18, 2025·Inglewood, California, USA, USA
Style matchupRinya Nakamura: WrestlervsMuin Gafurov: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Rinya Nakamura wins(69.1%)
Actual result: Muin Gafurov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rinya Nakamura enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Rinya Nakamura has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rinya Nakamura (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rinya Nakamura
Red Corner
VS
Muin Gafurov
Blue Corner
-750
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+530
(16%)
31
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rinya NakamuraW4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Feb 23W
vs Fernie Garcia · Aug 23W
vs Carlos Vera · Feb 24W
KOvs Nathan Fletcher · Aug 25Muin Gafurov
oldest →latest
L
vs John Castaneda · Jun 23L
SUBvs Said Nurmagomedov · Oct 23W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Jun 24L
SUBvs Jakub Wiklacz · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rinya NakamuraMetricMuin Gafurov
3.27
Strikes / min
3.36
1.72
Strikes absorbed / min
2.51
63%
Strike defense
55%
2.58
TDs / 15 min
1.57
100%
Takedown defense
70%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.55evenly matched on net striking+0.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rinya NakamuraMuin Gafurov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rinya Nakamura(5 fights)Muin Gafurov(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+53.0-53.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+126.0-126.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
Rinya Nakamura
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5
Muin Gafurov
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5