Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Rinya Nakamura won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 2, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRinya Nakamura: WrestlervsNathan Fletcher: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Rinya Nakamura wins(55.3%)
Actual result: Rinya Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rinya Nakamura is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Nathan Fletcher has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rinya Nakamura has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rinya Nakamura (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rinya Nakamura
Red Corner
VS
Nathan Fletcher
Blue Corner
-360
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+290
(26%)
31
Age
28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rinya Nakamura
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Feb 23W
vs Fernie Garcia · Aug 23W
vs Carlos Vera · Feb 24L
vs Muin Gafurov · Jan 25Nathan Fletcher
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Zygimantas Ramaska · Sep 24L
vs Caolan Loughran · Mar 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rinya NakamuraMetricNathan Fletcher
3.27
Strikes / min
3.41
1.72
Strikes absorbed / min
2.16
63%
Strike defense
57%
2.58
TDs / 15 min
3.37
100%
Takedown defense
50%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.55evenly matched on net striking+1.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rinya NakamuraNathan Fletcher
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rinya Nakamura(5 fights)Nathan Fletcher(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+27.4-27.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+63.0-63.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Rinya Nakamura
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5
Nathan Fletcher
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3