Welterweight
3 Rounds
Roan Carneiro won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 17, 2016·Hidalgo, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupRoan Carneiro: WrestlervsKenny Robertson: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Kenny Robertson wins(53.8%)
Actual result: Roan Carneiro wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roan Carneiro has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Roan Carneiro has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Roan Carneiro
Red Corner
VS
Kenny Robertson
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
47
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roan CarneiroL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Mark Munoz · Feb 15L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Feb 16L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Feb 17Kenny Robertson
oldest →latest
L
vs Sean Pierson · Jun 13W
SUBvs Thiago Perpetuo · Mar 14W
vs Ildemar Alcantara · Jul 14W
KOvs Sultan Aliev · Jan 15L
vs Ben Saunders · Jul 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roan CarneiroMetricKenny Robertson
1.46
Strikes / min
3.72
1.82
Strikes absorbed / min
3.02
62%
Strike defense
52%
3.05
TDs / 15 min
1.37
83%
Takedown defense
57%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.36Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+0.70
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Roan CarneiroKenny Robertson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roan Carneiro(4 fights)Kenny Robertson(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-3.63.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-211.0211.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Roan Carneiro
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4
Kenny Robertson
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9