Welterweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Robbie Lawler won · S-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, January 2, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsCarlos Condit: Elusive striker
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(63.7%)
Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Robbie Lawler has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Robbie Lawler
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Condit
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
44
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Robbie Lawler
oldest →latest
L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20W
KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23Carlos Condit
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18W
vs Court McGee · Oct 20W
vs Matt Brown · Jan 21L
vs Max Griffin · Jul 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Robbie LawlerMetricCarlos Condit
3.85
Strikes / min
3.66
4.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.67
59%
Strike defense
55%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
0.59
65%
Takedown defense
38%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap+0.99
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Robbie LawlerCarlos Condit
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Carlos Condit(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+68.7-68.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-42.042.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Robbie Lawler
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18
Carlos Condit
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17