Welterweight
3 Rounds
Robbie Lawler won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 24, 2014·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsJake Ellenberger: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(70.0%)
Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Robbie Lawler is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Jake Ellenberger has lost 70% of fights by KO.
- Jake Ellenberger has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Robbie Lawler
Red Corner
VS
Jake Ellenberger
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
44
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Robbie Lawler
oldest →latest
L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20W
KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Robbie LawlerMetricJake Ellenberger
3.85
Strikes / min
2.47
4.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.83
59%
Strike defense
60%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
2.04
65%
Takedown defense
86%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82evenly matched on net striking-0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Robbie LawlerJake Ellenberger
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-34.234.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-231.0231.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Robbie Lawler
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18
Jake Ellenberger
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights19