Welterweight
5 Rounds
Robbie Lawler won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, July 26, 2014·San Jose, California, USA, USA
Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsMatt Brown: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Robbie Lawler
Red Corner
VS
Matt Brown
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+295
(25%)
44
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Robbie Lawler
oldest →latest
L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20W
KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23Matt Brown
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Robbie LawlerMetricMatt Brown
3.85
Strikes / min
3.76
4.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.92
59%
Strike defense
55%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
1.68
65%
Takedown defense
63%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap+0.84
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Robbie LawlerMatt Brown
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-24.424.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Robbie Lawler
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18
Matt Brown
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25