Welterweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Robbie Lawler won · KO/TKO R5
UFC Event·Saturday, July 11, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsRory MacDonald: Elusive striker
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(50.5%)
Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Robbie Lawler is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rory MacDonald has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Robbie Lawler
Red Corner
VS
Rory MacDonald
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-165
(62%)
44
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Robbie Lawler
oldest →latest
L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20W
KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23Rory MacDonald
oldest →latest
L
vs Robbie Lawler · Nov 13W
vs Demian Maia · Feb 14W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Robbie LawlerMetricRory MacDonald
3.85
Strikes / min
3.75
4.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.80
59%
Strike defense
62%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
1.77
65%
Takedown defense
88%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Robbie LawlerRory MacDonald
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Rory MacDonald(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-4.04.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-63.063.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Robbie Lawler
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18
Rory MacDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12