Middleweight
5 Rounds
Robert Whittaker won · U-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, April 17, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRobert Whittaker: Well-roundedvsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Robert Whittaker wins(66.3%)
Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Robert Whittaker has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Robert Whittaker
Red Corner
VS
Kelvin Gastelum
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
35
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Robert WhittakerL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 23W
vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24W
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24L
SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24L
vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Robert WhittakerMetricKelvin Gastelum
4.39
Strikes / min
3.65
3.36
Strikes absorbed / min
3.52
59%
Strike defense
57%
0.73
TDs / 15 min
1.04
82%
Takedown defense
60%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Robert WhittakerKelvin Gastelum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+97.1-97.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+112.0-112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Robert Whittaker
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights24
Kelvin Gastelum
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24