Middleweight
3 Rounds
Robert Whittaker won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 17, 2024·Anaheim, California, USA, USA
Style matchupRobert Whittaker: Well-roundedvsPaulo Costa: Pressure fighter
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Robert Whittaker wins(53.1%)
Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Robert Whittaker has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Robert Whittaker
Red Corner
VS
Paulo Costa
Blue Corner
-205
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Robert WhittakerL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Marvin Vettori · Sep 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 23W
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24L
SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24L
vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25Paulo Costa
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Israel Adesanya · Sep 20L
vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 21W
vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24W
vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Robert WhittakerMetricPaulo Costa
4.39
Strikes / min
6.15
3.36
Strikes absorbed / min
5.96
59%
Strike defense
49%
0.73
TDs / 15 min
0.30
82%
Takedown defense
77%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Robert WhittakerPaulo Costa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Paulo Costa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+83.9-83.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-322.0322.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Robert Whittaker
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights24
Paulo Costa
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11