Middleweight
3 Rounds
Robert Whittaker won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 23, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRobert Whittaker: Well-roundedvsRafael Natal: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(50.7%)
Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Robert Whittaker
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Natal
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+265
(27%)
35
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Robert WhittakerL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 23W
vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24W
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24L
SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24L
vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25Rafael NatalL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tom Watson · Jan 15W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Robert WhittakerMetricRafael Natal
4.39
Strikes / min
3.10
3.36
Strikes absorbed / min
2.48
59%
Strike defense
57%
0.73
TDs / 15 min
2.55
82%
Takedown defense
77%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Robert WhittakerRafael Natal
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Rafael Natal(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-5.65.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+77.0-77.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Robert Whittaker
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights24
Rafael Natal
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16