Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Raulian Paiva has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rogerio Bontorin
oldest →W
vs Magomed Bibulatov · Feb 19L
KOvs Kai Kara-France · Mar 21W
vs Matt Schnell · May 21L
vs Brandon Royval · Jan 22 Raulian PaivaL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Mark De La Rosa · Feb 20W
DECvs Zhalgas Zhamagulov · Jul 20W
vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 21L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Dec 21L
vs Sergey Morozov · Jun 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rogerio BontorinMetricRaulian Paiva
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.64evenly matched on net striking-0.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rogerio BontorinRaulian Paiva
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rogerio Bontorin(6 fights)Raulian Paiva(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +65.3|Blue -65.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rogerio BontorinTargetRaulian Paiva
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rogerio Bontorin edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns2
Control1:21
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
