Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Rogerio Nogueira won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 14, 2016·Curitiba, Parana, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Patrick Cummins wins(59.0%)
Actual result: Rogerio Nogueira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Patrick Cummins has lost 71% of fights by KO.
- Rogerio Nogueira has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rogerio Nogueira
Red Corner
VS
Patrick Cummins
Blue Corner
+195
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-235
(70%)
49
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Mauricio Rua · Aug 15L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16W
KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20Patrick CumminsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17W
vs Gian Villante · Jul 17L
vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18L
SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18L
KOvs Ed Herman · May 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rogerio NogueiraMetricPatrick Cummins
2.43
Strikes / min
4.26
2.34
Strikes absorbed / min
3.35
59%
Strike defense
55%
0.64
TDs / 15 min
4.49
62%
Takedown defense
28%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.91
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rogerio NogueiraPatrick Cummins
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)Patrick Cummins(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-31.631.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+98.0-98.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Rogerio Nogueira
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12
Patrick Cummins
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights13