Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Bader won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 25, 2010·Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Ryan Bader wins(55.1%)
Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Ryan Bader has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Ryan Bader has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ryan Bader has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rogerio Nogueira
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Bader
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
49
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16W
KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Phil Davis · Jan 15W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rogerio NogueiraMetricRyan Bader
2.43
Strikes / min
2.82
2.34
Strikes absorbed / min
1.39
59%
Strike defense
71%
0.64
TDs / 15 min
3.37
62%
Takedown defense
80%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+1.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rogerio NogueiraRyan Bader
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.7-16.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.049.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Rogerio Nogueira
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12
Ryan Bader
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16