Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Spann won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 11, 2019·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(58.5%)
Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Ryan Spann has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rogerio Nogueira has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
- Ryan Spann has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rogerio Nogueira
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Spann
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
49
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'5"
190.5 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rogerio Nogueira
oldest →latest
L
vs Mauricio Rua · Aug 15W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16W
KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20Ryan Spann
oldest →latest
L
vs Anthony Smith · Aug 23L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24W
SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25W
SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rogerio NogueiraMetricRyan Spann
2.43
Strikes / min
3.11
2.34
Strikes absorbed / min
3.92
59%
Strike defense
43%
0.64
TDs / 15 min
1.21
62%
Takedown defense
59%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rogerio NogueiraRyan Spann
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-3.83.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.5-1.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Rogerio Nogueira
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12
Ryan Spann
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights15