Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rory MacDonald won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, April 21, 2012·Atlanta, Georgia, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rory MacDonald wins(66.2%)
Actual result: Rory MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Che Mills is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rory MacDonald has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rory MacDonald has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Rory MacDonald
Red Corner
VS
Che Mills
Blue Corner
-660
(87%)
Vegas Odds
+540
(16%)
36
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Demian Maia · Feb 14W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16Che MillsW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Chris Cope · Nov 11W
KOvs Duane Ludwig · Sep 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rory MacDonaldMetricChe Mills
3.75
Strikes / min
2.08
2.80
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
62%
Strike defense
43%
1.77
TDs / 15 min
1.18
88%
Takedown defense
58%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-0.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rory MacDonaldChe Mills
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Che Mills(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+3.7-3.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+91.0-91.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
Rory MacDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12
Che Mills
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3