Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rory MacDonald won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 22, 2014·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRory MacDonald: Elusive strikervsDemian Maia: Wrestler
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Rory MacDonald wins(54.4%)
Actual result: Rory MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rory MacDonald has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
- Rory MacDonald has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rory MacDonald
Red Corner
VS
Demian Maia
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
36
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Robbie Lawler · Nov 13W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
vs Rocco Martin · Jun 19W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rory MacDonaldMetricDemian Maia
3.75
Strikes / min
1.80
2.80
Strikes absorbed / min
2.07
62%
Strike defense
63%
1.77
TDs / 15 min
2.49
88%
Takedown defense
61%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-0.27
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rory MacDonaldDemian Maia
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Demian Maia(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.8-15.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-38.038.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Rory MacDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12
Demian Maia
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26