Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rory MacDonald won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 27, 2013·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Style matchupRory MacDonald: Elusive strikervsJake Ellenberger: Wrestler
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Rory MacDonald wins(62.1%)
Actual result: Rory MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jake Ellenberger is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rory MacDonald has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rory MacDonald
Red Corner
VS
Jake Ellenberger
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
36
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'9"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Demian Maia · Feb 14W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rory MacDonaldMetricJake Ellenberger
3.75
Strikes / min
2.47
2.80
Strikes absorbed / min
2.83
62%
Strike defense
60%
1.77
TDs / 15 min
2.04
88%
Takedown defense
86%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rory MacDonaldJake Ellenberger
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-39.239.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+98.0-98.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Rory MacDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12
Jake Ellenberger
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights19