Welterweight
3 Rounds
Robbie Lawler won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 16, 2013·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRory MacDonald: Elusive strikervsRobbie Lawler: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Rory MacDonald wins(63.1%)
Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Robbie Lawler is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rory MacDonald has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rory MacDonald
Red Corner
VS
Robbie Lawler
Blue Corner
-410
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+365
(22%)
36
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Demian Maia · Feb 14W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16Robbie Lawler
oldest →latest
L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20W
KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rory MacDonaldMetricRobbie Lawler
3.75
Strikes / min
3.85
2.80
Strikes absorbed / min
4.67
62%
Strike defense
59%
1.77
TDs / 15 min
0.65
88%
Takedown defense
65%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-0.82
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rory MacDonaldRobbie Lawler
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Robbie Lawler(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+40.7-40.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Rory MacDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12
Robbie Lawler
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18