Welterweight
5 Rounds
Stephen Thompson won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, June 18, 2016·Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupRory MacDonald: Elusive strikervsStephen Thompson: Striker
Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.
Model Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins(58.0%)
Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stephen Thompson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rory MacDonald has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Rory MacDonald
Red Corner
VS
Stephen Thompson
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
36
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rory MacDonald
oldest →latest
L
vs Robbie Lawler · Nov 13W
vs Demian Maia · Feb 14W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15Stephen ThompsonL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rory MacDonaldMetricStephen Thompson
3.75
Strikes / min
4.05
2.80
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
62%
Strike defense
54%
1.77
TDs / 15 min
0.23
88%
Takedown defense
63%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95evenly matched on net striking+1.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rory MacDonaldStephen Thompson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-20.420.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+210.0-210.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Rory MacDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12
Stephen Thompson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights21