Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Carla Esparza won · S-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, May 7, 2022·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupRose Namajunas: Well-roundedvsCarla Esparza: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Rose Namajunas wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rose Namajunas has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Rose Namajunas
Red Corner
VS
Carla Esparza
Blue Corner
-235
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
33
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'1"
165.1 cm
Reach
160.02 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rose Namajunas
oldest →latest
W
vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24W
vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24L
vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24W
vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25L
vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26Carla EsparzaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Michelle Waterson · May 20W
vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20W
KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21L
SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22L
vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rose NamajunasMetricCarla Esparza
3.50
Strikes / min
2.19
3.38
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
63%
Strike defense
54%
1.47
TDs / 15 min
3.28
62%
Takedown defense
47%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.68
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rose NamajunasCarla Esparza
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rose Namajunas(10 fights)Carla Esparza(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+30.7-30.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-168.0168.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Rose Namajunas
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights19
Carla Esparza
StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights15