Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Rose Namajunas won · SUB R5
UFC Event·Thursday, December 10, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRose Namajunas: Well-roundedvsPaige VanZant: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Rose Namajunas wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Rose Namajunas wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rose Namajunas has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rose Namajunas has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Rose Namajunas
Red Corner
VS
Paige VanZant
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
33
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'4"
165.1 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rose Namajunas
oldest →latest
W
vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24W
vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24L
vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24W
vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25L
vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26Paige VanZant
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Bec Rawlings · Aug 16L
SUBvs Michelle Waterson · Dec 16L
vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jan 18W
SUBvs Rachael Ostovich · Jan 19L
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rose NamajunasMetricPaige VanZant
3.50
Strikes / min
3.35
3.38
Strikes absorbed / min
2.62
63%
Strike defense
42%
1.47
TDs / 15 min
1.27
62%
Takedown defense
34%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.73
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rose NamajunasPaige VanZant
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rose Namajunas(10 fights)Paige VanZant(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-45.845.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.81.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Rose Namajunas
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights19
Paige VanZant
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights9