Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Roxanne Modafferi won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 20, 2019·Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, Russia, Russia
Model Prediction: Roxanne Modafferi wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Roxanne Modafferi wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Antonina Shevchenko has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Antonina Shevchenko (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Roxanne Modafferi
Red Corner
VS
Antonina Shevchenko
Blue Corner
+270
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-330
(77%)
43
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roxanne ModafferiL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 20W
vs Andrea Lee · Sep 20L
vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21L
vs Taila Santos · Sep 21L
vs Casey O'Neill · Feb 22Antonina Shevchenko
oldest →latest
L
vs Katlyn Chookagian · May 20W
KOvs Ariane Lipski · Nov 20L
SUBvs Andrea Lee · May 21L
KOvs Casey O'Neill · Oct 21W
vs Cortney Casey · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roxanne ModafferiMetricAntonina Shevchenko
3.35
Strikes / min
3.86
5.70
Strikes absorbed / min
2.93
51%
Strike defense
52%
1.35
TDs / 15 min
0.43
30%
Takedown defense
53%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.35Δ 3.28 — meaningful gap+0.93
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Roxanne ModafferiAntonina Shevchenko
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Antonina Shevchenko(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-46.046.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+27.0-27.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+3.2-3.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Roxanne Modafferi
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights12
Antonina Shevchenko
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights8