Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Casey O'Neill won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 12, 2022·Houston, Texas, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Roxanne Modafferi wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Casey O'Neill wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Casey O'Neill has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Roxanne Modafferi
Red Corner
VS
Casey O'Neill
Blue Corner
+270
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-350
(78%)
43
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roxanne ModafferiL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Maycee Barber · Jan 20L
vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 20W
vs Andrea Lee · Sep 20L
vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21L
vs Taila Santos · Sep 21Casey O'NeillW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Antonina Shevchenko · Oct 21L
vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 23L
SUBvs Ariane da Silva · Dec 23W
vs Luana Santos · Aug 24W
KOvs Gabriella Fernandes · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roxanne ModafferiMetricCasey O'Neill
3.35
Strikes / min
7.89
5.70
Strikes absorbed / min
5.53
51%
Strike defense
57%
1.35
TDs / 15 min
1.40
30%
Takedown defense
70%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.35Δ 4.71 — meaningful gap+2.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Roxanne ModafferiCasey O'Neill
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Casey O'Neill(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-78.578.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
Roxanne Modafferi
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights12
Casey O'Neill
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights8