Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Lauren Murphy won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 20, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Roxanne Modafferi wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Lauren Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Lauren Murphy has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Roxanne Modafferi
Red Corner
VS
Lauren Murphy
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
43
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'5"
175.26 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roxanne ModafferiL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Maycee Barber · Jan 20W
vs Andrea Lee · Sep 20L
vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21L
vs Taila Santos · Sep 21L
vs Casey O'Neill · Feb 22Lauren MurphyL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 21L
KOvs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 21W
vs Miesha Tate · Jul 22L
vs Jessica Andrade · Jan 23L
vs Eduarda Moura · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roxanne ModafferiMetricLauren Murphy
3.35
Strikes / min
3.94
5.70
Strikes absorbed / min
5.19
51%
Strike defense
56%
1.35
TDs / 15 min
1.09
30%
Takedown defense
67%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.35Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap-1.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Roxanne ModafferiLauren Murphy
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Lauren Murphy(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-14.514.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Roxanne Modafferi
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights12
Lauren Murphy
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights15