Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Alistair Overeem won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 14, 2015·Dallas, Texas, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(58.9%)
Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Alistair Overeem has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alistair Overeem has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Roy Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Alistair Overeem
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
49
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'4"
185.42 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17Alistair Overeem
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricAlistair Overeem
2.18
Strikes / min
3.67
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
46%
Strike defense
57%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
1.42
65%
Takedown defense
73%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.61Δ 3.84 — meaningful gap+1.23
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Roy NelsonAlistair Overeem
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Alistair Overeem(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.70.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+84.0-84.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Roy Nelson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18
Alistair Overeem
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20