Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Roy Nelson won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, September 24, 2016·Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Antonio Silva wins(50.4%)
Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Antonio Silva has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Antonio Silva has a 23cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Roy Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Antonio Silva
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+335
(23%)
49
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'4"
185.42 cm
Reach
208.28 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy NelsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Alistair Overeem · Mar 15L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17Antonio SilvaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 14L
KOvs Frank Mir · Feb 15W
KOvs Soa Palelei · Aug 15L
KOvs Mark Hunt · Nov 15L
KOvs Stefan Struve · May 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricAntonio Silva
2.18
Strikes / min
2.89
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
3.09
46%
Strike defense
50%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
0.82
65%
Takedown defense
66%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.61Δ 2.41 — meaningful gap-0.20
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Roy NelsonAntonio Silva
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Antonio Silva(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.3-14.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-60.060.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Roy Nelson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18
Antonio Silva
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights10