Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Roy Nelson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 26, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Dave Herman wins(53.7%)
Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dave Herman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Dave Herman has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Dave Herman has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Roy Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Dave Herman
Blue Corner
-162
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+152
(40%)
49
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'4"
185.42 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17Dave HermanL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jon Olav Einemo · Jun 11L
KOvs Stefan Struve · Feb 12L
vs Minotauro Nogueira · Oct 12L
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Jul 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricDave Herman
2.18
Strikes / min
4.98
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
46%
Strike defense
48%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
1.49
65%
Takedown defense
58%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.61Δ 3.81 — meaningful gap+1.20
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Roy NelsonDave Herman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Dave Herman(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-13.513.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+11.0-11.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Roy Nelson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18
Dave Herman
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights5