Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Derrick Lewis won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Thursday, July 7, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(55.0%)
Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 73% of fights by KO.
- Derrick Lewis has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Roy Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Derrick Lewis
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
49
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Alistair Overeem · Mar 15L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17Derrick Lewis
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Jul 23L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricDerrick Lewis
2.18
Strikes / min
2.46
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
2.57
46%
Strike defense
39%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
0.55
65%
Takedown defense
52%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.61Δ 2.50 — meaningful gap-0.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Roy NelsonDerrick Lewis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Derrick Lewis(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-55.755.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+64.0-64.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Roy Nelson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18
Derrick Lewis
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31