Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Fabricio Werdum won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 4, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Fabricio Werdum wins(53.4%)
Actual result: Fabricio Werdum wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Roy Nelson has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Fabricio Werdum has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Roy Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Fabricio Werdum
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
49
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'4"
185.42 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17Fabricio Werdum
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17W
vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18L
vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20W
SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricFabricio Werdum
2.18
Strikes / min
3.59
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
2.64
46%
Strike defense
55%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
1.75
65%
Takedown defense
31%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.61Δ 3.56 — meaningful gap+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Roy NelsonFabricio Werdum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.049.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.949.9
Roy Nelson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18
Fabricio Werdum
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights14