Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Roy Nelson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 6, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Jared Rosholt wins(57.8%)
Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jared Rosholt enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Jared Rosholt has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Jared Rosholt has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Roy Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Jared Rosholt
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
49
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
185.42 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Alistair Overeem · Mar 15L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17Jared RosholtW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Soa Palelei · Jun 14L
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Nov 14W
KOvs Josh Copeland · Mar 15W
vs Tim Johnson · Aug 15W
vs Stefan Struve · Nov 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricJared Rosholt
2.18
Strikes / min
2.08
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
1.52
46%
Strike defense
59%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
1.83
65%
Takedown defense
66%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.61Δ 3.17 — meaningful gap+0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Roy NelsonJared Rosholt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Jared Rosholt(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-87.287.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+49.0-49.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Roy Nelson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18
Jared Rosholt
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8