Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Junior Dos Santos won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 7, 2010·Oakland, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Roy Nelson wins(50.7%)
Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
- Junior Dos Santos has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Junior Dos Santos has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Junior Dos Santos has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Roy Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Junior Dos Santos
Blue Corner
+315
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-345
(78%)
49
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'4"
185.42 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17Junior Dos SantosL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricJunior Dos Santos
2.18
Strikes / min
4.49
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
3.33
46%
Strike defense
56%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
0.30
65%
Takedown defense
81%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.61Δ 3.77 — meaningful gap+1.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Roy NelsonJunior Dos Santos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-10.010.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.21.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Roy Nelson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18
Junior Dos Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19