Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Roy Nelson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 15, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Roy Nelson wins(58.8%)
Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Mitrione has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
- Matt Mitrione has a 23cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Roy Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Matt Mitrione
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
49
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'0"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
208.28 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17Matt MitrioneL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricMatt Mitrione
2.18
Strikes / min
3.55
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
2.79
46%
Strike defense
64%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
0.00
65%
Takedown defense
55%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.61Δ 3.37 — meaningful gap+0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Roy NelsonMatt Mitrione
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Matt Mitrione(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-35.935.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-210.0210.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Roy Nelson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18
Matt Mitrione
StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights13