Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Roy Nelson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Wednesday, March 31, 2010·Charlotte, North Carolina, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Stefan Struve wins(52.8%)
Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Stefan Struve has lost 70% of fights by KO.
- Stefan Struve has a 28cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Roy Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Stefan Struve
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+290
(26%)
49
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
213.36 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17Stefan StruveL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18L
vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18W
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19L
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricStefan Struve
2.18
Strikes / min
3.12
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
4.04
46%
Strike defense
46%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
0.56
65%
Takedown defense
55%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.61Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap-0.92
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Roy NelsonStefan Struve
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Stefan Struve(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Roy Nelson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18
Stefan Struve
StanceOrthodox
Height83.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights20