Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Bader won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 3, 2015·Houston, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupRyan Bader: WrestlervsRashad Evans: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Ryan Bader wins(63.8%)
Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rashad Evans enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Ryan Bader
Red Corner
VS
Rashad Evans
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
42
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 14W
vs Phil Davis · Jan 15L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16Rashad EvansL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Chael Sonnen · Nov 13L
KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16L
vs Daniel Kelly · Mar 17L
vs Sam Alvey · Aug 17L
KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ryan BaderMetricRashad Evans
2.82
Strikes / min
2.14
1.39
Strikes absorbed / min
2.42
71%
Strike defense
63%
3.37
TDs / 15 min
2.98
80%
Takedown defense
73%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.43Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap-0.28
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ryan BaderRashad Evans
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ryan Bader(10 fights)Rashad Evans(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+21.9-21.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-434.0434.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Ryan Bader
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16
Rashad Evans
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12