Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Ryan Bader won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 19, 2016·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Ryan Bader wins(61.1%)
Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Ryan Bader has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Ryan Bader has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ryan Bader has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Ryan Bader
Red Corner
VS
Rogerio Nogueira
Blue Corner
-340
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+280
(26%)
42
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ryan Bader
oldest →latest
W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 14W
vs Phil Davis · Jan 15W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Mauricio Rua · Aug 15W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16W
KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ryan BaderMetricRogerio Nogueira
2.82
Strikes / min
2.43
1.39
Strikes absorbed / min
2.34
71%
Strike defense
59%
3.37
TDs / 15 min
0.64
80%
Takedown defense
62%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.43Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ryan BaderRogerio Nogueira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ryan Bader(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+78.2-78.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-112.0112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Ryan Bader
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16
Rogerio Nogueira
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12