Welterweight
3 Rounds
Ryan LaFlare won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 11, 2017·Brooklyn, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupRyan LaFlare: WrestlervsRoan Carneiro: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Ryan LaFlare wins(61.2%)
Actual result: Ryan LaFlare wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roan Carneiro has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Ryan LaFlare (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Ryan LaFlare
Red Corner
VS
Roan Carneiro
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
42
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ryan LaFlare
oldest →latest
L
vs Demian Maia · Mar 15W
vs Mike Pierce · Dec 15L
KOvs Alex Oliveira · Jul 17W
vs Alex Garcia · Apr 18L
KOvs Anthony Rocco Martin · Oct 18Roan Carneiro
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Mark Munoz · Feb 15L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Feb 16W
vs Kenny Robertson · Sep 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ryan LaFlareMetricRoan Carneiro
2.89
Strikes / min
1.46
1.86
Strikes absorbed / min
1.82
63%
Strike defense
62%
2.13
TDs / 15 min
3.05
58%
Takedown defense
83%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.03Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap-0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ryan LaFlareRoan Carneiro
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ryan LaFlare(10 fights)Roan Carneiro(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+48.1-48.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+281.0-281.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.8-1.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Ryan LaFlare
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10
Roan Carneiro
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4