Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Spann won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 19, 2025·New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, USA
Style matchupRyan Spann: Submission grapplervsLukasz Brzeski: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(69.7%)
Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lukasz Brzeski has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ryan Spann has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Ryan Spann
Red Corner
VS
Lukasz Brzeski
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
34
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ryan Spann
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Nikita Krylov · Mar 23L
vs Anthony Smith · Aug 23L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24W
SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25Lukasz BrzeskiL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Karl Williams · Mar 23L
KOvs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Aug 23W
vs Valter Walker · Apr 24L
KOvs Mick Parkin · Jul 24L
KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ryan SpannMetricLukasz Brzeski
3.11
Strikes / min
4.90
3.92
Strikes absorbed / min
3.65
43%
Strike defense
54%
1.21
TDs / 15 min
0.41
59%
Takedown defense
35%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.81Δ 2.06 — meaningful gap+1.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ryan SpannLukasz Brzeski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ryan Spann(10 fights)Lukasz Brzeski(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+69.4-69.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-98.098.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Ryan Spann
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights15
Lukasz Brzeski
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights7