Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Spann won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 9, 2020·Jacksonville, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupRyan Spann: Submission grapplervsSam Alvey: Striker
Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.
Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(61.2%)
Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ryan Spann has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Sam Alvey has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).
- Ryan Spann has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Ryan Spann
Red Corner
VS
Sam Alvey
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+335
(23%)
34
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'5"
Height
6'2"
200.66 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ryan Spann
oldest →latest
L
vs Anthony Smith · Aug 23L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24W
SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25W
SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Klidson Abreu · Jul 19L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ryan SpannMetricSam Alvey
3.11
Strikes / min
3.28
3.92
Strikes absorbed / min
3.63
43%
Strike defense
52%
1.21
TDs / 15 min
0.06
59%
Takedown defense
82%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ryan SpannSam Alvey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ryan Spann(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+28.9-28.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-84.084.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Ryan Spann
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights15
Sam Alvey
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23