Welterweight
3 Rounds
Bryan Barberena won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 30, 2016·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupSage Northcutt: Elusive strikervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Sage Northcutt wins(58.0%)
Actual result: Bryan Barberena wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sage Northcutt enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Sage Northcutt has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Sage Northcutt
Red Corner
VS
Bryan Barberena
Blue Corner
-275
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+235
(30%)
30
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sage NorthcuttW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Enrique Marin · Jul 16L
SUBvs Mickey Gall · Dec 16W
vs Michel Quinones · Nov 17W
vs Thibault Gouti · Feb 18W
KOvs Zak Ottow · Jul 18Bryan BarberenaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sage NorthcuttMetricBryan Barberena
3.58
Strikes / min
5.35
1.96
Strikes absorbed / min
4.59
58%
Strike defense
44%
1.81
TDs / 15 min
0.13
41%
Takedown defense
50%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62evenly matched on net striking+0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sage NorthcuttBryan Barberena
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sage Northcutt(8 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+34.1-34.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-229.0229.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.21.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Sage Northcutt
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8
Bryan Barberena
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19