Lightweight
3 Rounds
Sage Northcutt won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 11, 2017·Norfolk, Virginia, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Sage Northcutt wins(73.2%)
Actual result: Sage Northcutt wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sage Northcutt has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Sage Northcutt
Red Corner
VS
Michel Quinones
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
30
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sage NorthcuttW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Jan 16W
vs Enrique Marin · Jul 16L
SUBvs Mickey Gall · Dec 16W
vs Thibault Gouti · Feb 18W
KOvs Zak Ottow · Jul 18Michel Quinones
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Jared Gordon · Jun 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sage NorthcuttMetricMichel Quinones
3.58
Strikes / min
2.91
1.96
Strikes absorbed / min
5.98
58%
Strike defense
48%
1.81
TDs / 15 min
0.00
41%
Takedown defense
36%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62Δ 4.69 — meaningful gap-3.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sage NorthcuttMichel Quinones
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sage Northcutt(8 fights)Michel Quinones(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+30.1-30.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+190.0-190.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Sage Northcutt
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8
Michel Quinones
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2