Lightweight
3 Rounds
Sage Northcutt won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Sunday, February 18, 2018·Austin, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupSage Northcutt: Elusive strikervsThibault Gouti: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Sage Northcutt wins(77.7%)
Actual result: Sage Northcutt wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thibault Gouti has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Sage Northcutt
Red Corner
VS
Thibault Gouti
Blue Corner
-375
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+313
(24%)
30
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sage NorthcuttW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Jan 16W
vs Enrique Marin · Jul 16L
SUBvs Mickey Gall · Dec 16W
vs Michel Quinones · Nov 17W
KOvs Zak Ottow · Jul 18Thibault Gouti
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Teemu Packalen · Feb 16L
SUBvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Jun 16L
KOvs Chad Laprise · Aug 16W
KOvs Andrew Holbrook · Sep 17L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Oct 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sage NorthcuttMetricThibault Gouti
3.58
Strikes / min
3.68
1.96
Strikes absorbed / min
5.64
58%
Strike defense
50%
1.81
TDs / 15 min
1.23
41%
Takedown defense
83%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62Δ 3.58 — meaningful gap-1.96
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sage NorthcuttThibault Gouti
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sage Northcutt(8 fights)Thibault Gouti(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+61.4-61.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-70.070.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Sage Northcutt
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8
Thibault Gouti
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6