Welterweight
3 Rounds
Sage Northcutt won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, July 14, 2018·Boise, Idaho, USA, USA
Style matchupSage Northcutt: Elusive strikervsZak Ottow: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Sage Northcutt wins(67.7%)
Actual result: Sage Northcutt wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Zak Ottow has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Sage Northcutt
Red Corner
VS
Zak Ottow
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
30
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sage NorthcuttW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Jan 16W
vs Enrique Marin · Jul 16L
SUBvs Mickey Gall · Dec 16W
vs Michel Quinones · Nov 17W
vs Thibault Gouti · Feb 18Zak Ottow
oldest →latest
W
vs Kiichi Kunimoto · Jun 17L
vs Li Jingliang · Nov 17W
KOvs Mike Pyle · Mar 18W
vs Dwight Grant · Dec 18L
KOvs Alex Morono · Mar 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sage NorthcuttMetricZak Ottow
3.58
Strikes / min
2.63
1.96
Strikes absorbed / min
2.73
58%
Strike defense
58%
1.81
TDs / 15 min
0.97
41%
Takedown defense
57%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sage NorthcuttZak Ottow
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sage Northcutt(8 fights)Zak Ottow(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+23.4-23.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+13.0-13.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Sage Northcutt
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8
Zak Ottow
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8