Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Said Nurmagomedov won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 21, 2023·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupSaid Nurmagomedov: Submission grapplervsMuin Gafurov: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Said Nurmagomedov wins(55.3%)
Actual result: Said Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Said Nurmagomedov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Said Nurmagomedov threatens submissions; Muin Gafurov has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Muin Gafurov (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Said Nurmagomedov
Red Corner
VS
Muin Gafurov
Blue Corner
-305
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
34
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Said NurmagomedovL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jul 22W
SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22L
vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23L
vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25L
vs Bryce Mitchell · Jul 25Muin Gafurov
oldest →latest
L
vs John Castaneda · Jun 23W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Jun 24W
vs Rinya Nakamura · Jan 25L
SUBvs Jakub Wiklacz · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Said NurmagomedovMetricMuin Gafurov
3.08
Strikes / min
3.36
2.05
Strikes absorbed / min
2.51
55%
Strike defense
55%
0.86
TDs / 15 min
1.57
63%
Takedown defense
70%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Said NurmagomedovMuin Gafurov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Muin Gafurov(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+78.8-78.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+84.0-84.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Said Nurmagomedov
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11
Muin Gafurov
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5