Middleweight
3 Rounds
Sam Alvey won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 5, 2016·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupSam Alvey: StrikervsAlex Nicholson: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(56.2%)
Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Sam Alvey
Red Corner
VS
Alex Nicholson
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
40
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'4"
190.5 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ryan Spann · May 20L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22Alex Nicholson
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Feb 16W
KOvs Devin Clark · Jul 16L
KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam AlveyMetricAlex Nicholson
3.28
Strikes / min
4.12
3.63
Strikes absorbed / min
4.65
52%
Strike defense
47%
0.06
TDs / 15 min
0.00
82%
Takedown defense
50%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.53
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sam AlveyAlex Nicholson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Alvey(10 fights)Alex Nicholson(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+35.6-35.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-45.045.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Sam Alvey
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23
Alex Nicholson
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4